Bitcoin Drops Below $93.3K as U.S. Reserve Odds Decline
Bitcoin’s price has slipped below $93,300, continuing a downward trend that began four weeks ago when it reached an all-time high of $109,200. The decline is partly driven by fading hopes of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), a proposal that once excited crypto investors.
Falling Odds of a U.S. Bitcoin Reserve
One of the key factors behind Bitcoin’s price dip is the reduced likelihood of the U.S. government establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. On Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, the chances of former President Donald Trump creating an SBR within his first 100 days in office have fallen to just 12%, down from 40% in January.
Additionally, the probability of Texas passing its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act has declined significantly. Earlier this year, it stood at over 60%, but recent estimates place it at just 38%. Another prediction market, Kalshi, currently puts the odds at 41%.
State-Level Bitcoin Reserve Bills Face Uncertainty
Several U.S. states, including Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, Alabama, and Wyoming, have introduced similar Bitcoin reserve bills. However, uncertainty remains about their success, as lawmakers continue to debate the feasibility of such measures.
Despite the declining odds, discussions within the Trump administration regarding a national Bitcoin reserve are still ongoing. David Sacks, a venture capitalist and advisor to the administration on crypto and AI, recently confirmed that the idea remains on the table.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
With Bitcoin’s price retreating and regulatory uncertainties looming, investors are closely watching political developments in the U.S. A decision on a national Bitcoin reserve could have significant implications for the crypto market in the months ahead.
For now, Bitcoin remains volatile, and the next major move will likely depend on legislative progress and broader market sentiment.
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